Suchergebnisse

Main description: Die Auswirkungen der Globalisierung werden vielfach als Bedrohung für die nationalen (Arbeits)Märkte angesehen. Die 69. Wissenschaftliche Konferenz widmete sich deshalb dem aktuellen Thema "Auswirkungen der Globalisierung auf nationale Arbeitsmärkte: Diagnose und Therapie". Vor dem Hintergrund hoher Arbeitslosenzahlen wurde mit dieser Konferenz ein Beitrag zur wirtschaftspolitischen Beratung der Bundesregierung geleistet. In den Vorträgen und Diskussionen wurden die Implikationen globalisierter Arbeitsmärkte beispielsweise für die Geld- und Fiskalpolitik, die Bedeutung der (De-)Regulierung in einem globalisierten Arbeitsmarkt und die Arbeitsmarkteffekte durch Outsourcing behandelt. Andere Vorträge widmeten sich dem Thema Einkommensausgleich und Wirtschaftseffizienz, der Förderung des Niedriglohnsektors und der Humankapitalbildung als Bestandteil der Wirtschaftspolitik. -- Die Vorträge und Diskussionsbeiträge stützten die These, dass die Globalisierung nicht die Hauptursache für die Probleme am deutschen Arbeitsmarkt - insbesondere für die Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit und gering Qualifizierte - darstellt, die Auswirkungen anderer Ursachen aber verstärken. Als Lösungsvorschläge wurden genannt: Flexibilisierungen am Arbeitsmarkt, Ausgestaltung der Sozialleistungen im Zusammenhang mit Arbeitslosigkeit als Hilfen zur Arbeitsaufnahme, Qualifizierung von Arbeitnehmern sowie auch gesteuerte Zuwanderung statt Abschottung der Märkte.

In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, governments around the world have provided a massive fiscal and monetary stimulus. While this policy is welcome in the short run, it does not address the underlying problem in the medium and long run. The reason is that the pandemic has not given rise to a generalized shortfall in aggregate demand. Rather, it has generated a Great Economic Mismatch, characterized by deficient demand for things requiring close physical interactions among people and deficient supply of things compatible with social distancing, where appropriate. Expansive macroeconomic policy can stimulate aggregate demand, but when social distancing is enforced, it will not stimulate production and consumption whenever this demand is satisfied through physically interactive activities. To overcome the Great Economic Mismatch, "readaptation policies" are called for. In the medium run, these policies promote a redirection of resources to activities compatible with social distancing; the long run, these policies make economies more resilient to unforeseen shocks that generate a Great Economic Mismatch. Once the pandemic is over, a more profound rethinking of decision making - in public policy, business and civil society - is called for. First, decision makers will need to supplement the current focus on economic efficiency by greater emphasis on economic resilience. Second, economic policies and business strategies will need to focus less on incentives for selfish individuals and more on the mobilization of people's prosocial motives. Finally, to encourage people around the world to cooperate globally in tackling global problems, policy makers at local, national and global levels will need to encourage people around the world to cooperate globally in tackling global problems, with the aid of two powerful tools that humans throughout history have used to coordinate their efforts: identity-shaping narratives and institutions of multi-level governance.

In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, governments around the world have provided a massive fiscal and monetary stimulus. While this policy is welcome in the short run, it does not address the underlying problem in the medium and long run. The reason is that the pandemic has not given rise to a generalized shortfall in aggregate demand. Rather, it has generated a Great Economic Mismatch, characterized by deficient demand for things requiring close physical interactions among people and deficient supply of things compatible with social distancing, where appropriate. Expansive macroeconomic policy can stimulate aggregate demand, but when social distancing is enforced, it will not stimulate production and consumption whenever this demand is satisfied through physically interactive activities. To overcome the Great Economic Mismatch, "readaptation policies" are called for. In the medium run, these policies promote a redirection of resources to activities compatible with social distancing; the long run, these policies make economies more resilient to unforeseen shocks that generate a Great Economic Mismatch. Once the pandemic is over, a more profound rethinking of decision making - in public policy, business and civil society - is called for. First, decision makers will need to supplement the current focus on economic efficiency by greater emphasis on economic resilience. Second, economic policies and business strategies will need to focus less on incentives for selfish individuals and more on the mobilization of people's prosocial motives. Finally, to encourage people around the world to cooperate globally in tackling global problems, policy makers at local, national and global levels will need to encourage people around the world to cooperate globally in tackling global problems, with the aid of two powerful tools that humans throughout history have used to coordinate their efforts: identity-shaping narratives and institutions of multi-level governance.

This paper may be summarized by the following points. First, the crisis of the liberal world order arises from a misalignment of our social, economic and political domains of activity, along with a resulting destabilization of our physical environment. The integration of the global economy has generated problems that extend beyond our current bounds of social and political cooperation. Second, extending our social cooperation - on which basis our political cooperation can be extended as well - requires the creation of the appropriate moral narratives. These narratives must guide business strategies, public policies and civic activities. Third, these narratives must be supplemented by multilevel governance structures that address challenges at the scale - micro, meso and macro - at which these challenges arise. Finally, past human experience in developing moral narratives, supported by multilevel governance structures, suggests guidelines for a future form of multilateralism that enables us to meet this challenge.

This vision brief may be summarized by the following points. First, the crisis of the liberal world order arises from a misalignment of our social, economic and political domains of activity, along with a resulting destabilization of our physical environment. The integration of the global economy has generated problems that extend beyond our current bounds of social and political cooperation. Second, extending our social cooperation - on which basis our political cooperation can be extended as well - requires the creation of the appropriate moral narratives. These narratives must guide business strategies, public policies and civic activities. Third, these narratives must be supplemented by multilevel governance structures that address challenges at the scale - micro, meso and macro - at which these chal-lenges arise. Finally, past human experience in developing moral narratives, supported by multilevel governance structures, suggests guidelines for a future form of multilateralism that enables us to meet this challenge.

The world is economically integrated, but socially fragmented. Thus economic progress can become decoupled from social progress. As long as social progress is closely linked to and flows from economic progress, it is appropriate for government to focus attention on economic policy to promote economic growth. Indeed, for at least the first four decades of the postwar period, there are good reasons to believe that this was broadly the case for most developed economies. Then, starting in the 1980s and accelerating after the financial crisis of 2008, we argue that social progress in these countries became progressively decoupled from economic progress. The result has been the phenomenon of misery in the midst of plenty: despite continued economic growth, we witness rising dissatisfaction among large segments of the public, declining trust in most public and private institutions, rising nationalism and populism, rising discontent with globalization, increasing unwillingness to accept migrants and refugees, and growing ethnic and religious conflicts. This paper argues that the prevailing thinking about government policy is an outgrowth of the Age of Coupling. In the Age of Decoupling, however, a radically different approach to government policy is required, one that focuses not just on material wellbeing and its distribution, but also on promoting people's sense of empowerment and social solidarity.

Now, at the end of the 20th century, many OECD countries face serious problems in achieving both prosperity and social cohesion. One important - and sadly neglected - source of these problems are the very policy systems that are meant to address them. I will argue that these policy systems - including taxes and transfers, regulations governing employment, welfare services, and many more - are imparting a serious long-term imbalance to their host countries, by making these countries increasingly vulnerable to economic, social and political shocks. Although these policy systems were originally designed with the express aim to cushion citizens from these shocks and to provide security against a variety of uncertainties, their long-term effect is turning out to be the opposite of what was intended. This paper examines how and why this has happened and then turns to some important, recent economic developments that are likely to make this problem more serious in the future. Finally, it examines a strategy for economic policy reform that addresses the problem and thereby provides a means for achieving more favorable economic and social outcomes in the years ahead.